Capital Flows from "Mature" to Emerging Countries

Sottotitolo: 
The emerging countries re-export back quite a good part of what they receive, after having increased their financial reserves.

The flow of capital from rich countries to developing ones  is to day a stable  phenomenon of the  world economy . It has reached in the last few years the size of a billion dollar , and  it seems  now  to have reached a sort  of stability It is now a main element in the inter national economy , which does not  comes from any particular  decisions of Governments or Banks. The forecast of the iif (Institute for International Finance)   are shown here in Table one, for the  current year and for next. Of course , the  main  origin of such flows   is the difference in the  rate of increase of the respective economies , that  is about one per cent in the rich area , and  about five per cent in the Emerging Countries.   The movement is simply available capital looking for profit , and moving to the places that promise a higher  level of profit . By now the  phenomenon  has  had some  effects on  the  receiving countries, who now   re-export back quite a good part of what they receive , after having increased their financial reserves.

Table 1: Capital flows from Mature Countries  to Emerging ones In billion dollars

 

2012

2013

2014

Total Inflow

1,113

1,173

1,209

Private flows

1,080

1,118

1,150

Equity invest

572

616

646

Priv. Creditors

508

502

504

Official inflow

33

55

59

Total Outflow

-1,427

-1390

-1,359

Private Outflow

-975

-1,116

-1,026

Reserves Increase

-375

-374

-333

The figures of table one  for 2012 and the forecasts for  2013 
confirm  that he Capital Inflow is not increasing much  , bur keeps   to a  high level , and that it is   basically  made up by a private flow , to which the Emerging Countries  answer by   an high level of  recycling back. The private outflow  is  about the same level than the inflow . So, the Emerging countries can increase their reserves ( in the table presented with a  minus sign) and improve their stability, and their ability to resist to a possible financial crisis. 

Table two .Inflow and outflow  to Emerging Countries and back in 2013 In billion dollars

Countries

Pv. Inflow

%

Pv. Outflow

%

Asia

517

46,3

-540

53,1

(China

303

27.1

-407

40.0)

Europe

218

19.5

-163

16.0

Latin America

298

26.6

-152

15.0

Africa Mid E

85

7.6

-161

15.9

Total

1,118

100.0

-1,016

100,0

The distribution  of the flow of capital  shows the  important position of Asia which counts for about half  of the total flow and outflow   , and particularly of China . In second   position is Latin America ,  followed by Emerging Europe , and Africa and Middle East the latter exporting more than the inflow , as the Middle East has the oil income., and it’s a capital exporter.   The capital outflow does not include  the increase of reserves , but only the capital actually flowing back. 

Marcello Colitti

Economist. He was President of Enichem. His last book is "Etica e politica di Baruch Spinoza". Member of the Editorial Board of Insight