The Federal Reserve's Wrong Way

Sottotitolo: 
Raising interest rates is a dangerous step in today’s integrated global economy, and it would further distort financial asset prices, setting them up for a possible disorderly correction..

After more than seven years of economic recovery, the Federal Reserve is positioning itself to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates. In light of the wobbly reaction in financial markets, an important question that must be asked is whether raising interest rates is the right tool.

It could well be that the world’s leading central bank is going about the process of tightening in the wrong way. Owing to the dollar’s preeminent standing, that could have severe global repercussions. Just as the Fed has had to rethink how it combats recessions, so too it must rethink how it transitions from an easy monetary policy stance to a tighter stance.

A quick review

In December 2015, the U.S. Federal Reserve increased interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. This move came with the expectation of gradually raising its interest rate to a new normal of 3%. Initially, normalization aimed to lighten pressure on the monetary policy pedal, and only later would it turn to hitting the monetary policy brake.

The normalization process was contingent on the data showing continued improvement, but the U.S. economy slowed in the first half of 2016, putting it on hold. However, since May, the data have again been robust regarding job creation and wage growth. Furthermore, there are signs of asset and house price exuberance in the U.S. economy that can be destabilizing and also inflict large future losses on working families.

The wrong way to begin normalization

These recent developments have prompted the Federal Reserve to consider restarting the process. Raising interest rates is the wrong way to begin normalization The problem is not that the Federal Reserve wants to restart the normalization process, but rather that it wants to do so by raising its policy interest rate. That risks spilling the infamous monetary policy “punch bowl”.

Raising interest rates is a dangerous step in today’s integrated global economy. The Fed must calculate especially carefully given that other economies (the UK, Japan, and the European Union) are on the ropes and lowering rates. Raising U.S. rates in such an environment threatens to cause an inflow of hot money into the United States that will appreciate the dollar’s exchange rate and further fuel US financial markets.

That, in turn, will negatively impact manufacturing via lower exports and increased imports. It will also lower investment spending by injuring manufacturing. And it would further distort financial asset prices, setting them up for a possible disorderly correction.

An alternative normalization path

There is an alternative normalization path that avoids these problems.

1. The Federal Reserve should shelve plans to raise its policy interest rate. Later, if the normalization process goes well, it can put rate hikes back on the policy table.

2. The Federal Reserve should immediately stop reinvesting the income from its private sector bond holdings and should start running-off those holdings.Having the private sector repay debt held by the Federal Reserve would drain liquidity from financial markets, thereby tamping down financial speculation and also putting incipient upward pressure on long-term interest rates, which is what policymakers desire.

3. If the Federal Reserve is concerned about house price inflation, it should impose a temporary reserve requirement on new mortgages. That would make new mortgages more expensive, given that banks would pass on the cost of the reserve requirement to borrowers, thereby cooling house price inflation. Most importantly, this well-targeted measure would not affect interest rates in the rest of the U.S. economy, thereby avoiding causing hot money inflows and collateral damage on manufacturing and investment.

4. If the Federal Reserve is concerned about a stock market bubble and related impacts on consumption spending, it should raise margin requirements.

Margin borrowing for stock purchases is at near-record levels. Even a symbolic increase would put speculators on notice and discourage borrowing. Such a move would also rehabilitate an important anti-speculation policy tool that has been allowed to fall into disuse.

Rethinking monetary policy in normal times

Chairwoman Yellen’s recent Jackson Hole conference speech was titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future”. She argued that the policy tools developed in the economic crisis to promote recovery need to be retained for possible future deployment. Those tools include interest on excess reserves (IOER), large scale asset purchases, and explicit forward guidance.

Whereas the Federal Reserve has radically rethought how to combat recessions, its policy framework for normal times is less changed and remains focused on interest rates. For instance, both IOER and forward guidance concern interest rate policy.

This lack of change means the Federal Reserve risks spilling the punch bowl. The above alternative program shows how that can be avoided.

Instead of immediately raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve should use the current transition as an opportunity to introduce quantitative policy tools such as margin requirements and adjustable discretionary reserve requirements on problematic asset classes. Doing so can allow it to drain the punch bowl without spilling the punch.

Unfortunately, the Fed is far behind the curve. It has directed all of its efforts to preparing the market for higher interest rates, when it should have first been preparing the market for these type of targeted measures. However, better late than never

Thomas Palley

Thomas Palley is Schwartz economic growth fellow at the New America Foundation; Senior Economic Policy Adviser, AFL-CIO. His most recent book “From Financial Crisis to Stagnation” has just been released in paperback by Cambridge University Press (February 2013).

Member of Insight Editorial board.

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Did you already pick up your very own pair of the adidas NMD R1 Khaki? Very versatile in appearance, this colorway of the adidas NMD R1 comes dressed in a stretchy Adidas NMD For Sale mesh upper utilizing Khaki and Brown hues. Reflective hits appear on the Three Stripes and heel tab, while the EVA midsole plugs come Adidas Eqt Boost in Black and Khaki. A White Boost midsole and Black rubbers outsole complete the aesthetics of the shoe. Sizes are selling out fast, Adidas Ultra Boost 3.0 but you can still find these at select adidas retailers for $130. Will you be rocking these this Spring season?The adidas NMD Adidas Ultra Boost Uncaged R1 Tonal Pack released months back which sold-out almost instantly. Good news for those that missed out as the pack will become available Adidas Ultra Boost once again at select retail stores.Three pairs of the adidas NMD form the pack which comes in Solar Red, Triple Black or Triple Adidas Outlet White. Each of the respective shades covers the entire shoes including the Boost midsole.Now some might be let down with the restock of Yeezy Boost 350 Moonrock the adidas NMD R1 Tonal Pack as they will be available at select international adidas Originals retailers. One of the shops being Caliroots. Adidas Ultra Boost However, it’s possible that stateside shops could have a restock as well, and if that happens we will make sure to provide you Yeezy Boost 350 Turtle Dove with updates.adidas Originals and size? extend upon their City Series with their fourth installment. Using the iconic adidas Gazelle, they are launching Adidas NMD White a pair as a tribute to Paris.So far under their belt is the adidas Gazelle inspired by Milan, London and Amsterdam with Paris BAPE x Adidas NMD making it the fourth. Using a clean color theme, they feature Blue leather across the uppers while Red lands on the heel, Three Nmd Chukka Stripes and tongue branding. Following we have Paris down the panels which is done in Gold. Finishing the look is a White midsole Nmd CS1 and outsole.The size? x adidas Originals Gazelle GTX Paris is scheduled to release exclusively in Paris on March 3rd. Following, a wider release Yeezy Boost 350 V2 Kids will take place on March 10th which can be purchased in-store and online. Below you can check out more images which will give Adidas Eqt Support 93/17 you a better look. Let us know in the comments section your thoughts.Sporting a similar look to the previous Chinese New Year Yeezy Boost 350 V2 Cream White edition, release info and official imagery of this adidas Ultra Boost 3.0 Multicolor has finally surfaced, as we’re expected to see it later Adidas Eqt this summer. Featuring a multicolored upper consisting of vibrant tones, the model Yeezy Boost 350 V2 is detailed with a black cage, heel counter, inner liner and rubber outsole. A contrasting white Boost midsole and black continental outsole caps off the sleek design altogether.Look for this version of the silhouette at select adidas stores and online sometime during July Nmd CS2 2017 for a retail price tag of $200. Click and bookmark our official adidas Ultra Boost 3.0 Multicolor launch page now for more Adidas Ultra Boost White images, the latest info and full release details. Yohji Yamamoto continues to expand his adidas Y-3 line, and now we get a Yeezy Boost 350 Pirate Black look at the latest adidas Y-3 Noci High from the Japanese designer.Following a look from the Black/Red pair that dropped last summer, this Yeezy Boost 350 V2 one comes dressed in a Core Black, Silver Metallic and Crystal White color scheme.Take a closer look at the adidas Y-3 Noci High Adidas Ultra Boost 2.0 below and find them available today through select adidas Y-3 retailers like Titolo.Overkill (Berlin sneaker store) and adidas Consortium link up to Yeezy Boost 350 V2 Beluga release the Overkill x adidas EQT Coat of Arms Pack. This two-pair collaborative pack has Overkill paying homage to the Kreuzberg area of Ultra Boost Berlin, which happens to be their store’s location.The Overkill x adidas EQT Coat of Arms Pack includes one pair of the adidas EQT Yeezy Boost 350 Support ADV and the adidas EQT Support Future. Both pairs are dressed in a color combination consisting of Red, Black and White, which Adidas NMD XR1 are colors that can be found on Kreuzberg’s traditional emblem.Details on the EQT Support ADV include the Grey and Black upper accented by Adidas Eqt Support Ultra the Red hits noted on the Overkill logo on the ankle strap. The Boost equipped EQT Support Future comes in two shades of Adidas Ultra Boost Black Grey with Red stripes while Overkill branding can be spotted on the medial side of the shoe. Release info is as follows: Priced Yeezy Boost 350 at $150 (EQT Support ADV ) and $180 (EQT Support Future), both pairs will release exclusively at Overkill on May 20th, while a Adidas Originals NMD global release is expected to happen on May 27th.adidas Originals is now launching the newest 350 from their SPEZIAL series. This pair Adidas Originals Eqt is known as the adidas Originals 350 Mesa.This adidas 350 features a Fall or even a Winter time theme although you can still Ultra Boost Uncaged pull them off during Spring. Looking closer, they feature Mesa Brown suede across the uppers while Cargo Brown accents are displayed. Following we NMD R1 have leather that lands on the back heel followed by Gold on the branding. Finishing the look is White that lands on the Adidas EQT Support 91/16 midsole and extends across the outsole.For those that are interested in purchasing the adidas Originals 350 in Mesa and Cargo Brown, they are NMD Adidas now landing at select adidas Originals retailers like Afew. Retail price is set at €89.95 which comes out to be about $95 USD. Adidas Shoes Only select sizes are still available. Below you can check out more images which will show you how they look on feet.Last Adidas Nmd Human Race year’s release of the adidas Yeezy Boost 350 v2 Beluga is one of its best iterations, and the popular colorway is rumored to Yeezy Boost 350 V2 Zebra come back once again later this Fall 2017 in a tweaked version. A rendering of what that design might look like courtesy of Yeezy Shoes Yeezy Mafia reveals the sneaker in a Beluga-like theme with a mixed colorway of grey, bold orange and dark grey tones. Also, the Nmd model will feature striped pull tabs.Current rumors have the adidas Yeezy Boost 350 v2 Beluga 2.0 dropping at select adidas stores during October Adidas Eqt Running Support 93 2017 for $220. Keep it locked to KicksOnFire for more updates. Adding to the massive adidas Iniki Runner Boost releases set for Adidas NMD R1 April 20th is this adidas Iniki Runner Boost London edition that uses a familiar color scheme from the adidas City Series.Built with a NMD XR1 Black suede and mesh upper that includes Red contrasting accents on the Three Stripes, tongue and heel. A full-length White Boost midsole and Adidas Eqt Support 93/16 Gum rubber outsole finishes off the design.Look for the adidas Iniki Runner Boost “London” to release on April 20th exclusively in London at Eqt Adidas the adidas Flagship location at 15 Carnaby Street. A wider release is expected to follow on May 4th.Kanye West’s next adidas Yeezy Adidas NMD sneaker, the adidas Yeezy Calabasas PowerPhase will be releasing soon. While they might not be part of the Yeezy Boost line, the good Yeezy Boost 350 Sandals news about the adidas Calabasas PowerPhase is that it’ll be very affordable.Having similarities to the classic Reebok Workout from the 80s. Kanye West’s Yeezy Boost 550 Yeezy PowerPhase sneaker will release in a crisp White leather upper with lateral Calabasas branding in Gold. Other details include perforated Three Stripes Adidas Eqt Adv on the sides, adidas branding and a trefoil logo displayed by the eyelets, while sitting atop a White rubber sole.A release date has Adidas Ultra Boost Uncaged yet to be announced, but people have already started to receive pairs a bit early. Look for the adidas Yeezy Calabasas PowerPhase to Yeezy Boost 350 V2 Black/Red release soon for only $120 USD.
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