The nuclear catastrophe in Japan will probably have a number of serious consequences.  Possibly,  it  may have   already sealed for ever the destiny of  nuclear energy. Europe , France except , is moving along this way , although some  countries will probably complete the plants that they have been building, some of which  long overdue.

However, some countries, for example China,  may continue to build nuclear power stations as they are striving for an energy   mix  that will include all sources  including coal  and oil,  both partly imported, and renewables.  Again,    the nuclear  experts may be able to learn from the accidents , and will perhaps  propose to build  much smaller power stations , the huge sizes chosen  to have maximum  of scale economies being probably one of  the reasons why the huge monsters are so  difficult to control.

This third way would  probably  be the ideal,  but our experience does not count a large number of “ideal”  solutions  being adopted. Nuclear  energy has been going for  half a century , and the experts tend   not to answer the questions coming from outside their  strict  circles.  So we may  consider  as given some largely negative effect on nuclear projects  at least in Europe.  What will take the place of nuclear energy ?

The  answer is  that natural gas is  the energy source that will allow us the time necessary  for the renewables to “mature” industrially and economically.  Oil has now a very high price, almost about hundred times  higher compared with fifty years ago,  and has a strong tendency to keep  increasing.  Oil products are used nowadays  exclusively for transport: road transport with gasoline and gasoil, sea transport with  gasoil and fuel oil,  air transport with kerosene and aviation   gasoline. For the road , we have  already a variety of additives  to oil products, like ethanol, an alcohol  obtained from sugar cane or  similar plants, which however, competes with production of food for acreage, and makes the food situation ever worse that it should be. The amount of heavy fuel oil  used for burning is  rapidly diminishing in Europe and in the US, although some gasoil is still used especially in the US for household heating. 

Natural gas will take over , being cheaper , less polluting  and with lower  CO2  emissions.  Demand for oil will be  coming from  people driving cars and lorries  in Europe and in the US , while countries like China and India will probably aim for  to   more complex mixes, in which oil will play still a relevant part.  The oil reserves  know to day , and what it is hoped to be found  in the next decade  will probably allow the recent  life style of Americans , and,  to a smaller extent , of Europeans   to continue with motorways , commuting by car , and lorry transport.

However, such a  life stile is becoming more expensive , and less confortable. Oil at hundred dollars or more per barrel  might not allow this way of living to continue , and the pressure for public transport , especially on rails,  will increase,   gradually becoming  cheaper and  less tiring, comparing with oil driven cars or busses.  Gas will produce electricity, heat houses , provide industrial fuel: so we have to ask ourselves from where such gas will come to us .  Europe has almost completely exhausted   its own gas, first that  found in Italy, and then tha,t much bigge,r of the North Sea . Reserves are dwindling , and  the areas considered as positive  from the industry  are almost  all well developed.  However, gas is no more a  “local” fuel as it was in its first years.  Europe and USA are criss-crossed by pipelines, and ships  loaded with liquefied gas  move from production to the market everywhere.

Europe is particularly well connected   with the North, Russia, and with the South, the North Africa, while  American companies have   defined  a technology to obtain gas from  reservoirs  which were not  exploitable with the traditional technology , provoking a strong increase of internal production.  The main supplier for Europe is Russia,  and this may be  a problem, because American authorities never   liked Europe “depending” from Russia  for gas , in the same way they did not like  Europe  buying Russian crude , which was supposed to  weaken Europe into submission. 

To day, as submission is not probable ,  they talk of “ control ” of the market , as if the Russian seller had any interest to bring Europe into  misery, and  kill their best client.  This is not going to happen. The problem create some years ago  by the Russia-Ucraina tangle was solved pretty quickly, and the Russians  are now completing the pipeline under the Baltic to supply Germany directly. The relations  existing between Russia and Europe is that   of a continuum of  countries not separated by any  physical  border . One side is a producer and exporter of raw materials and energy sources ;  and the other  is  a  group  of countries importing that and exporting  the machinery and industrial goods that  the first imports.  In international trade there is no better set up. The two players are almost  equally balanced.   If the seller of gas does not sell, he  will have no money , and will not be able to buy the  industrial imports that he needs, and vice versa. There is no overwhelming power here or there, but only the need of commercial confidence  in each other.

Of course,  gas will be dominant only as long as it remains cheaper than its alternatives , that is, until the renewables get to be competitive. That is bound to happen. First, because  oil prices will keep increasing.  Second , public incentives are  already  reducing costs  , and moving the entire sector into an industrial proposition.  Of course , electricity production  with a large share of renewables, sun or wind,  will  require  a  reorganisation of the entire electric industry and consumption, as sun  does not operate  at night , when  light is really   necessary, and wind  operates only when wind actually  moves the  windmill. That means that the electric grid, and perhaps  even the single system of every user will have  to change  progressively, into “intelligent” solutions both for the  ability of the grid to  take discontinuous productions , and the  capacity  of the consumer  to  optimise his energy use .  Gas is not scarce , and its reserves  will last well beyond  the moment in which  the networks will  work  as they should. And oil will not disappear. Actually , the  success of gas will  prolong its life, until  we find a better way to  move , individually of collectively, that  the burning of oil.