An unexpected European scenario in a new world order

There was a time in which the Franco-German alliance was considered a turning point in the construction of the European community of which it would assume the leadership.

The importance of the European elections was widely known. But it was impossible to anticipate such a radical change in the European world. The victory of Le Pen's party in France was expected. But the result exceeds all predictions due to the collapse of  Macron's party, with a paltry 14 percent of  votes.                                                    

 Until a few days ago, France and Germany, albeit with different accents, were still a duo at the center of the European Union. Now the framework is changed. Macron's sensational defeat is accompanied by that of Scholz.

The three parties of the German government have suffered sensational losses, together reaching just over 30 percent of the votes, about a third of the German total votes. In essence, the Franco-German alliance sees the collapse of the parties of the current governments.

But it is not the only news. Marianne Le Pen's, leader of far-right party, won more than expected. If the victory is consolidated in the elections of June 30th and July 7th,  we could witness a sensational turning point for France and the European Union, with the young  Jordan Bardella   head of government and Marine Le Pen candidate for the presidency of the Republic in 2027. A possible sensational turning point for France and the European Union.

The Franco-German alliance

There was a time in which the Franco-German alliance was considered a turning point, pivotal in the construction of the European community. It was the historic meeting in the autumn of 1958 between Charles de Gaulle, elected in the summer  to lead France, and Konrad Adenauer in the private residence of Colombey-les-Deux-Églises. A turning point which dominated the following decades with the Franco-German alliance.

However, for de Gaulle the countries belonging to the European community needed to retain their sovereignty within a framework of close collaboration in regarding internal policies as well as in international politics.

But what followed was characterized by reversed trends with Mitterrand and Delors who saw in the Franco-German alliance the direction of the European Union as a substantial alternative to the sovereignty of the states that made it up. As we know, this chapter in European history has closed with the sensational defeat of Macron and Schulz in the main two countries of the European Union.

The radical change in France coincides with the resounding defeat of the German government in the European elections which , with the sum of center-left parties at 31 percent: Social democracy reduced to 14 seats, the Green Party and Liberals with respectively 12 and 5 seats.  Summing up the parties that support the current government have less than a third of 96. German seats in the European parliament.

The recent success of the right in France and Germany had important repercussions also  in Italy with the consolidation of  the right-wing party Fratelli d'Italia, Italy's Brothers, led by Giorgia Meloni  and its allies  Forza Italia, originated by Berlusconi, and Lega led by Salvini. On the other hand, there has been the good result of the Democratic Party led by Elly Schlein with over 24 percent of the votes. An advancement that, however, coincides with the drastic retreat, albeit expected, of Five Star Movement.

A changing scenario 

Indeed, European politics has undergone a radical change with the initial success of the American approach based on the breakdown of  relationships with Russia.

America won the first hand of the match played in Europe, but finds itself facing an unexpected reality. Russia apparently expelled from Europe has made an agreement with China. Meanwhile, China and Russia are part, of the alliance of Brazil and South Africa  along with India ,of which the head of government Narendra Modi has  again won the recent elections. And many other countries have to be added from Lain America  and Africa.

In this changed planetary structure, the United States has essentially abandoned Ukraine, while trying to curb Israeli policy towards Palestine after the substantial  destruction of population centers in the Gaza Strip and the dispersion of over one and a half million Palestinians out of the 2 million and 2 hundred thousand.

The deep change in the European scenario is accompanied by the unexpected changes in the Middle East where Saudi Arabia has planned a major relationship with Iran despite having an old alliance with the United States. At the same time, aligned in favor of a solution to the conflict with Palestine independent of Israel.

World has become more complicated in the last years when the problem seemed to be just the separation of Russia from the European borders and possibly the elimination of Putin from the Russian leadership.

The United States has essentially abandoned Ukraine. Biden - who has family problems due to his son's conviction as a former Ukrainian government adviser- has tried to convince the Israeli government to stop the attack on Gaza without acknowledging Hamas's role in the fight for Palestinian independence. But so far without concrete results, given Netanyahu's position aimed at eliminating the Palestinian attempt to have an independent state alongside Israel.

Baden's politics remains in search of a solution focused in the suspension – but with what outcome? - of the Israeli-Palestinian clash that could favor Trump's possible success in the November elections. A victory which, among other aspects, would coincide with the wish of Trump of suspending the conflict with Russia, placing China at the center of the confrontation.

On the other side, the changes that have occurred in Europe have accelerated the decline of the European Union into the new world order. The future cannot be anticipated. But it is certain that the picture has changed in many respects with the recent European elections that have created deep changes in France and Germany -  the most important countries  in the past as in the future of European Union.

Antonio Lettieri

Editor of Insight and President of CISS - Center for International Social Studies (Roma). He was National Secretary of CGIL; Member of ILO Governing Body and Advisor for European policy of Labour Minister. (