The only result of the Greek elections is to gain time, but without a change of approach Greece cannot escape its fate.
The seven parties that on 6 May were over the 3% threshold are the same on the 17 June elections, but with the following differences:
6 May 17 June
New Democracy (ND) 18,9 30,1
SYRIZA 16,8 26,5
PASOK 13,2 12,6
Independent Greeks 10,6 7,5
KKE 8,5 4,5
Golden Dawn 7,0 7,0
Dimar 6,1 6,1
ND and SYRIZA obtained increases of twelve and ten points on 17 June, but all the other five parties lost less than eight points; the main difference is that on 6 May several small parties didn’t pass the threshold. A part from the Greens, these parties are right populists or conservatives; all together the share reached 19%; this time the percentage is less than 6%. So the net electoral fluxes are from the greater part of the 19% (plus three points from Independent Greeks, an ati-memorandum split of ND) towards ND, while SYRIZA obtained four points from KKE (the old fashioned communist party absolutely anti-European) and a smaller part of the 19%.
The result is that this time ND has the opportunity (thanks to the bonus of 50 seats) to form a coalition government with PASOK and (perhaps) Dimar (Democratic Left, a party more pro-European than SYRIZA, but more critic with the memorandum than PASOK). For Antonis Samaras, the leader of the conservative ND, the coalition government represents a change in strategy, since during the May campaign he focused mainly on his wish for a “clear mandate” (to him). During the June campaign he called for a national union pro-Europe.
The 6 May elections marked the end of a long period in which ND or PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement) were the dominant parties. The combined share of two parties felt from a 77% in 2009 to 32% in May 2012, with a true breakdown of PASOK (from 43,9% to 13,2%). Now a new dichotomy is coming out, with SYRIZA (a coalition of leftist groups, which get 4,6% on 2009 elections) instead of PASOK, which pays the measures wanted by the Troika.
To all appearance, the 17 June results are what Europe was asking, even if a part of the German conservative élite would have prefered a victory of SYRIZA, in order to get free from Greece. Guido Westerwelle, German foreign ministry, said that the Troika may allow for a two years time, but the measures of the memorandum have to be accomplished. Many economists agree (see Paul Krugman on NYT, 18 June) that the only result is to gain time, but without a change of approach Greece cannot escape its fate. Greece needs a program of investments and transfers in order to recover from the 20% fall of Gdp, not continuous cuts in public expenditures.
If we look at the next few months, we may say that the euro destiny will not be accomplished in three months (as Christine Lagarde said few days ago). But will it last until German elections in fall 2013? It is enough clear that until that date is useless to hope in pooling the excess sovereign debt (as proposed by the German “wise men” Council), in introducing an European bank deposits assurance, in changing the European Stability Mechanism in a bank (in order to get money from the ECB), let alone issuing Eurobonds and the like. As Angela Merkel said, don’t expect news from the June meeting. Perhaps words and some homeopathic quantity of project-bonds.