The future cannot be anticipated

The future cannot be anticipated. However, President Donald Trump’s policies have proved unpredictable. Initially, he tried to subject other countries to American policy. The attempt failed. Trump had to change course in the face of opposition from the Federal Reserve, led first by Jerome Powell and now by Kevin Warsh.

This change represents a radical turning point. The alliance with Russia was followed by an alliance with China. Trump travelled to China accompanied by a large delegation of representatives from major American companies. This was a clear demonstration of the importance Trump attached to his meeting with Xi Jinping.

The turning point in US policy became clear after the meeting between Angela Merkel and Putin at the Kremlin at the end of 2021. An important agreement was then reached. Germany would have authorised the opening of the second pipeline, which would have supplied gas to Germany and, in part, to other European countries. However, the agreement between Germany and Russia was short-lived.

As we know, the agreement with Russia was cancelled at the initiative of the United States under President Biden. Russia then strengthened its agreement with China. It is also worth remembering that China reached an agreement with India, whose president travelled to China to meet President Xi Jinping.

This was not the only advantage for the United States. It had gained control over most of Latin America, including Venezuela. However, Brazil’s president, Lula — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — maintained Brazil’s independence. With more than 200 million inhabitants, Brazil is the largest Latin American country. Lula maintained an uncertain relationship with the United States while opening relations with Russia and China. In other words, this represented a major change in the global order.

A radical change

The position of the US in relation to Iran was not clear. Iran’s new president, Khamenei, is in favour of confrontation with the US. It should also be noted that Iran has not been defeated over the past millennia. On the other hand, the US lost the war in Vietnam and, more recently, in Afghanistan.

At first, the US was convinced that Iran could be defeated. This did not happen. Iran attacked countries aligned with the United States. We cannot anticipate the future, but the US plan for a war that would defeat Iran has failed. It should also be noted that elections will take place in the US next November, and Trump does not want them to coincide with a war against Iran.

US support for Israel is essentially unlimited. The attack on the Palestinian government in Gaza has led to the displacement of Palestinians to makeshift camps in the south of the Strip. In these new locations, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have nothing to eat, as the arrival of goods from neighbouring countries is uncertain. About seventy thousand Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli army, and some children have been left without parents. The attacks have also extended to areas north of Israel, in Lebanon.

In essence, the Palestinian question remains open. We should remember the exceptional case of President Yitzhak Rabin of the Labour Party, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and was assassinated by a member of the Israeli right on 4 November 1994. After a short time, Netanyahu, who governs today, became his successor.

A trip to Israel

I remember my trip with my friend Renato Lattes through the Israeli-occupied territories. We were guests of a family whose head was a leader of the resistance. On the return journey, while travelling with a Palestinian friend, we were stopped by an armed group of Israelis positioned at the top of a building in the central square. They demanded the name of the family that had hosted us. We refused and were kept there for a long time into the night before returning to Jerusalem.

However, there was an even more important occasion. I remember that Lula was a guest of my family in Rome. He explained his position on Brazil. It was extraordinarily important to hear about the condition of the country from the leader of the opposition. We know that he is once again the head of Brazil.

Europe’s future

The future cannot be anticipated, but some aspects are evident. European countries, under the European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen, are divided. Different countries pursue different policies.

The government of Emmanuel Macron, supported by a parliamentary minority, will remain in office until the spring of next year. After the next election, the majority will pass to the right-wing party led by Marine Le Pen, who has been cleared by a French court of the accusations made by the European Commission and whose party has won about 35 per cent of the vote in France. If she leads France, she will appoint the young Jordan Bardella, whose family is of Turin origin, as head of government.

Germany has a government led by Friedrich Merz, whose party currently has only 24 per cent of the vote, while its coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, has fallen to about 16 per cent — the lowest level in its history. The new development is Alternative for Germany, or AfD, led by Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel. It is particularly strong in the eastern part of the country and now also in the northern region of the state of Saxony-Anhalt. It is the second-largest party, with more than 20 per cent of the vote. In other words, in the near future it could become Germany’s largest party and pursue a different foreign policy.

Britain changed the government led by Keir Starmer after less than two years. The new government will be led by Andy Burnham. The new development is that each region will have a government reflecting the majority of its voters. In other words, Britain will have different political directions in different regions.

However, the major party on the rise is Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, which, according to forecasts, will win the next national election. In other words, Britain will have a different government, as has happened in previous years. If this is the case, the announced victory of the opposition party will change British foreign policy.

It should also be noted that the Italian government continues to support the US, despite having had problems with Trump. In any case, it is a government whose positions differ from those of the European Commission. In other words, Europe will be divided. The relative distancing of the major countries from the order of recent years is already a fact. This will create a new order in Europe and, in many respects, in the world.