The astonishing return of Mr. Berlusconi

In his brief but meaningful statement just after the announcement of the establishment of Enrico Letta’s new Government, Giorgio Napolitano, the head of the State, wanted to stress that it is a “political government”, a definition that would be obvious, if he did not want to point out that we should not consider it as "Government of the President ". Yet, it is a matter of fact that the new government didn’t originate from a normal parliamentarian agreement among the main parties. It would not have happened without the singularly strong determination of Mr. Napolitano, who, in his speech to the Parliament, indicated the program as well the parliamentary majority on which the new government had to be built.

Now, however you may define the new Government, two elements deserve to be considered: first, the process of its political foundation and, second, its possible institutional “collateral effects”. On the first point we must remember that the government formed by the deputy secretary of the Democratic Party, Mr. Letta’s,  cancelled the strategy proposed by the former Party Secretary, Mr. Bersani’s , which was based on the opposition to a “ Grand Coalition” with Berlusconi's Party of Liberty. A striking overthrow that has caused a devastating confusion among the Democratic Party’s militants.

Indeed Mr. Bersani had tried to form a government with the Five Stars Movement, which obtained a stunning score in the February political elections, gaining 9 million votes, 25% of the electorate. But Beppe Grillo, an old comedian, leader of the Movement, rejected Mr. Bersani's pledge, which included an agreement on a number of political and institutional common objectives. It was also impossible to find an agreement on the election of the new President of the Republic. This paved the way for the re-election of Mr. Napolitano, who worried by an anti-European stance of the Grillo’s Movement, pressured the PD in order to form the new government in alliance with Berlusconi’s PDL (see Mario Nuti, Napolitano's "Grand Coalition" [1]).)..

So Mr. Bersani resigned. The party’s deputy secretary, Enrico Letta, formed, under the pressure of the head of the State, the Grand Coalition Government which includes the same parties that supported the past Monti’s government. The outcome has been the return of Silvio Berlusconi, an unpredictable upshot, given that his center-right coalition had lost in the past elections six million votes, with a reduction from 48 percent t29 per cent of the votes, for the first time being openly been repudiated by the majority of the Italian electors, who had voted 30 per cent in favor of the center-left coalition, and 25 per cent in favor of the Five Stars Movement.

The unexpected reversal through the implementation of a Grand Coalition has been rightly summed up by Anatole Kaletsky on the International Herald Tribune: "Apparently, the winners were Giorgio Napolitano and his new Prime Minister Enrico Letta ... In fact, the real winner was Silvio Berlusconi re-emerged as the dominant figure in Italian politics. (the government) will be subject to losing the trust at any time Berlusconi deemed to have taken measures inconsistent with his personal interests or its political strategy Market euphoria misreads the signals from Brussels and Rome" (Market euphoria misreads the signals from Brussels and Rome). A diagnosis seemingly brutal, but unfortunately realistic.

Aside this political turnaround, what are the possible "side effects" of the formation of the Grand Coalition ? It is not by chance that many commentators have praised the determinant role of Mr. Napolitano, stressing the implicit trend toward a new semi-presidential regime like the French V Republic. The changed role of President of the Republic, the argument goes, should be the legitimation of this enlarged rule through the direct election of the President.

The shift toward a “presidential” regime has always been for the center-right coalition the mother of all constitutional reforms. In May a year ago Mr. Berlusconi and Mr.Alfano, PDL secretary and now deputy head of the government, had indicated the “semipresidenzialismo as "the founding act of the Third Republic." And Giovanni Sartori, outstanding columnist of Corriere della Sera wrote: "Suddenly Berlusconi (who has plenty of flair and that certainly is not resigned to sit on the bench) pulls out of the hat the French model: a two-round electoral system crowned by a semipresidenzialismo." Undoubtedly the presidential design is greatly strengthened by the post-election events and by the Napolitano’s unprecedented   role in the formation of the government.

As we know, the prototype of this regime was born with the French Fifth Republic. It was the end of the fifties, when France was faced with the dissolution of the party system of the Fourth Republic, Charles de Gaulle was called to save the Republic, threatened by the French army fighting in Algeria against the FNL, the Front of Liberation. General De Gaulle, hero of the Resistence, had the merit to open the negotiations with the FNL, allowing the end of the war and the independence of the last French colony. And aiming to avoid that his outstanding and unprecedented role shouldn’t remain ambiguously tied to a state of emergency, in 1962 a new Constitution was approved by referendum that, with an overwhelming popular support, established the Fifth Republic. A regime that strengthens the role of the President, giving him the power of nominating the Prime Minister, dissolve the Parliament, and drive the foreign policy.

As we have seen, it is no mystery that Berlusconi’s PDL supports this regime’s change. In the run-off of the election’s second round, the center-right coalition has the advantage of a greater ability to unify rightwing and the moderate vote, and attract the support of the ruling oligarchies. Not surprisingly, in France in the first 50 years of the Fifth Republic, between 1962 and 2012, before the election of Francois Hollande, six of seven presidents   came from the center-right. In Italy, the left has never been known for its ability to present a united front. And this possibility is made entirely improbable, in a context in which the government is a “Grand Coalition”, the only opposition to Berlusconi would be in the hands of the Five Stars Movement, which has already looted millions of votes that belonged to the PD.

Of course, today the situation is calm, and the political elites seem to be enthusiastic of the unexpected Letta government, sponsored by Mr. Napolitano. This is a 180-degree turn over in respect to a few weeks ago when the Italian crisis was compared to that of the Weimar Republic. Indeed an emphasized and unfounded comparison. Italy hasn’t lost a war, and the problem is the collapse of the old party system, starting from the left, similar to what happened to the Fourth French Republic.

Then, as we have seen, General De Gaulle was called, who had retired in a remote residence far from the capital, the small village of Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises. For Italy it was sufficient to appeal to Napolitano, who indeed aspired to terminate his mandate and to return to private life, between Rome and Capri, close to Naples, his beloved city.

However, the recent events have pushed the claim for a shift toward a new constitutional asset of the role of the President, along model. The difference  with the French V Republic is that France was in danger of a military putsch, and that required to call for   Charles De Gaulle; now the incredible candidate would be Silvio Berlusconi, who, if  he ever   will be able to escape the judiciary sentences  still  incumbent , could hope to transform the nightmare of prison in the glory of the Quirinale, the Roman Presidential residence.